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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    AIReF expands MIPred information to promote transparency

      It has started to publish the evolution of MIPred in excel format as the indicators are incorporated into the model The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has expanded the information offered by its model for forecasting the evolution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real time (MIPred), with the aim of promoting transparency ... Read more

    AIReF resumes publication of MIPred, having adapted the model to the situation caused by COVID-19

    Mipred
    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility processes labour market variables to determine the effect of ERTEs on employment and uses information on the de-escalation process The updated MIPred shows a drop in GDP of 14.1% in the second quarter  The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has resumed the publication of MIPRed, its real time ... Read more

    AIReF temporarily stops publishing MIPred and explores other alternatives for evaluating the economy in the short term

    Mipred
    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has decided to temporarily stop publishing its forecast model for the evolution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real time (MIPred) until the results are considered to be of sufficient quality to be useful to the general public. Likewise, in the same spirit of public service, AIReF will ... Read more

    Working paper 1/2018. Some Unpleasant Labor Arithmetics: A tale of the Spanish 2012 Labor Market Reform

    The 2008 economic and financial crisis and its posterior EU banking and sovereign debt dimensions highlighted some unresolved structural issues in the Spanish labor market, exacerbating unemployment issues. Duality between permanent and temporary workers, excessive rigidities in wage setting and collective bargaining arrangements and extreme volatility, particularly in employment, stand amongst the most commonly cited … Read more

    Working Paper 3/2017. A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Spanish System of Regional Finance

    Working Paper 3/2017.  A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Spanish System of Regional Finance

    José Luis Escrivá takes part in a conference on General State Budgets organized by the APD and Deloitte

    José Luis Escrivá, presidente de la AIReF, durante su discurso.s del estado

    On Wednesday, the President of the Independent Authority of Spanish Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), José Luis Escrivá, participated in a conference on the 2017 General State Budgets organized by the Association for Management Progress (APD) together with Deloitte, held at the Hotel Meliá Castilla in Madrid. José Luis Escrivá analysed financial sustainability and compliance with deficit objectives, … Read more

    Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions 2016-07-21

    Related documents: Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions

    Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

    This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more

    Working Paper 3/ 2015: Quarterly regional GDP flash estimates for the Spanish economy (METCAP model)

    In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business … Read more