Data lab. Quarterly GDP forecast for Spain

AIReF, within the general approach of transparency and dissemination of the methods and principles used within the framework of its mandate, considers it convenient to widely and regularly disseminate its analysis tools.

This page shows the quarter-on-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for both the current and the following quarter. This forecast is based on the combination of conjunctural information of different frequencies (quarterly and monthly) using a dynamic factor model (Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated short-term forecasting model for the Spanish economy (MIPred model)). Another distinctive feature of this model is that the information used to make the estimates is fully available in public and contrasted databases. This makes it possible to update the forecasts as new information on the indicators included in the model becomes available, so as to have the most up-to-date view possible of the evolution of economic activity in Spain. For example, in March the model incorporates the information corresponding to the industrial production index for the month of January (see the calendar for the dissemination of MIPred and the incorporation of the indicators corresponding to each month).

Due to the introduction of COVID-19 and to the availability of additional indicators to those used in the original model, AIReF has adapted the MIPred model. A recent example is the incorporation of monthly sales data, seasonally adjusted and corrected for calendar effects of the companies included in the Immediate Supply of Information (SII) system of the Tax Agency (See https://www.airef.es/es/noticias/la-airef-incorpora-un-nuevo-indicador-de-la-agencia-tributaria-a-su-modelo-de-prevision-mipred/).

In any case, it should be taken into account that exceptional events that cause rapid and intense changes in the economic situation cannot be reflected in the model’s forecasts until the indicators corresponding to the moment in which the abnormality happened are available.