Document Center. Working Papers

Working Paper 1/2019. AIReF model for forecasting pension expenditure in Spain

  You can read more here: Working Paper: AIReF model for forecasting pension expenditure in Spain  

Working Paper 6/2018. Introducing Uncertainty on Fertility and Survival in the Spanish Population Projections: A Monte Carlo Approach

You can read more here: Working Paper: Introducing Uncertainty on Fertility and Survival in the Spanish Population Projections: A Monte Carlo Approach

Working Paper 5/2018. Predicting Spanish Emigration and Inmigration

You can read more here: Predicting Spanish Emigration and Immigration

Working Paper 4/2018: Impact evaluation of the 2011 pension reform on new pensioners: period 2013-2015 Only available in Spanish

Documento de trabajo 4/2018. Impact evaluation of the 2011 pension reform on new pensioners: period 2013-2015

Working Paper 3/2018. Some elements for a revamped fiscal framework for Spain

Access to Working Paper 3/2018. Some elements for a revamped fiscal framework for Spain

Working Paper 2/2018. Estimating Output Gap: a Beauty Contest Approach

Working Paper 2/2018. Estimating Output Gap: a Beauty Contest Approach

Working paper 1/2018. Some Unpleasant Labor Arithmetics: A tale of the Spanish 2012 Labor Market Reform

The 2008 economic and financial crisis and its posterior EU banking and sovereign debt dimensions highlighted some unresolved structural issues in the Spanish labor market, exacerbating unemployment issues. Duality between permanent and temporary workers, excessive rigidities in wage setting and collective bargaining arrangements and extreme volatility, particularly in employment, stand...

Working Paper 3/2017. A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Spanish System of Regional Finance

Working Paper 3/2017.  A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Spanish System of Regional Finance

Working Paper 2/2017 What do we mean by Public Consumption. Only available in Spanish

What do we mean by Public Consumption Access to the simulator

Working Paper 1/2017 – Non-linear modeling of Spanish GDP. Only available in Spanish

Non-linear modeling of Spanish GDP

Working Paper 3/2016. El empleo en la prestación de servicios públicos (2002-2014). El caso del subsector de Comunidades Autónomas. Only available in spanish

Documento de Trabajo 3-2016. El empleo en la prestación de servicios públicos (2002-2014). El caso del subsector de Comunidades Autónomas

Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions 2016-07-21

Related documents: Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions

Working Paper 1/2016 Medium-term forecast for de Spanish Economy. BVARX modeling

BVARX Modeling of the Spanish economy.pdf

Public Administrations debt could have reached 30pp less had the expenditure rule been applied. Only available in spanish

Documentos relacionados: Documento divulgativo Regla de Gasto Presentación Impacto de la Regla de Gasto en las Finanzas Públicas Ndp Impacto de la Regla de Gasto en la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas

Gráfico de análisis.

Working Paper 5/2015 Modeling interest payments for macroeconomic assessment

In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of interest payments by the Government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of five elements: the initial outstanding amounts of debt,...

Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of...

Working Paper 3/ 2015: Quarterly regional GDP flash estimates for the Spanish economy (METCAP model)

In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree...

Working Paper 2/2015 Personal Income Tax: Modeling and Forecasting. Only available in Spanish

Personal Income Tax: Modeling and Forecasting Access to the simulator

Working Paper 1/2015: The Pension Revaluation Index: Proposals to solve the problem of circularity. Only available in Spanish

The Pension Revaluation Index: Proposals to solve the problem of circularity

Working Paper 2/2014 Spanish Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

This note develops an overarching debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework, encompassing three of its main dimensions: (i) a traditional (deterministic) sustainability exercise, based on a simple accounting application involving the debt accumulation equation; (ii) an assessment of the realism of the assumptions underlying the deterministic debt projections; and (iii) a...

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