The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes for the second time evaluation of the errors made in its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts that it has been making since 2015, incorporating the fiscal years 2021 and 2022.
According to AIReF, by their very nature, forecasts are subject under normal circumstances to high uncertainty, which has been extraordinarily accentuated in recent years as a result of the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions.
In this rapidly changing context, the analysis of forecast errors becomes even more relevant as it makes it possible to identify those macroeconomic aggregates where AIReF’s forecasts may be less accurate and to remedy possible biases and weaknesses in the estimation process. This transparency exercise is in line with AIReF’s core values and places it on a par with other independent fiscal institutions that already carry out this type of exercise. This is in response to one of the main recommendations of the OECD and the contents of AIReF’s Strategic Plan 2020-2026.