- It has started to publish the evolution of MIPred in excel format as the indicators are incorporated into the model
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has expanded the information offered by its model for forecasting the evolution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real time (MIPred), with the aim of promoting transparency and facilitating detailed access to estimates, which it deems to be essential in times of economic uncertainty. Specifically, AIReF has started the publication of the evolution of MIPred in reusable format, as the indicators are incorporated into the model.
AIReF’s MIPred model makes it possible to anticipate the evolution of economic growth as the public data making up the model are published. The prediction is based on a combination of short-term information issued at different frequencies (quarterly and monthly) using a dynamic factor model.
MIPred provides an estimate of the quarter-on-quarter growth rate for the current quarter, the year-on-year rate of the reference quarter with which said quarter-on-quarter rate would be consistent and how both rates move in relation to the level of GDP observed in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As new information becomes available on the indicators that make up MIPred – the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) series, those of workers registered for Social Security, temperature-corrected electricity consumption, deflated goods imports, the Industrial Production Index (IPI), the Services PMI, deflated gross earnings and total sales of large companies and sales of the Immediate Supply of Information (IIS) VAT system – it is incorporated into the model, which thus offers the most up-to-date overview possible on the evolution of economic activity.
From now on, and even though the underlying data of the model were already accessible, AIReF will publish together with MIPred a reusable Excel file with the initial estimate offered by the model for the quarter-on-quarter GDP rate in terms of volume, how it evolves as the indicators are incorporated, up to the final estimate immediately prior to the publication of the QNA.
After incorporating the National Accounts data for the second quarter published this Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE), MIPred shows a quarter-on-quarter GDP rate of -0.2% for the third quarter of 2022. This rate implies that the GDP index would still be at 97.6% of the level observed in the 4th quarter of 2019 and is compatible with a 3.4% year-on-year rate in the third quarter.