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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Second evaluation of AIReF’s macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts

     SECOND EVALUTION OF AIReF'S MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. SPANISH VERSION The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes for the second time evaluation of the errors made in its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts that it has been making since 2015, incorporating the fiscal years 2021 and 2022. According to AIReF, by their very ... Read more

    Variability of tax revenues

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has carried out an analysis of the factors that led to a record increase in revenue in 2022. Specifically, it has carried out a decomposition exercise of the variability of the main tax figures in order to quantify the different factors that have led to this increase in ... Read more

    Income and unemployment modeling methodology

    The medium-term resources of the fiscal sheet correspond to those estimated by AIReF for its fiscal scenario published in October 2022. Starting in 2027, it is divided between tax revenues and social contributions and the rest of the revenues. The rest of the income is considered to evolve at the same rate as nominal GDP. ... Read more

    Methodology of health, education and long-term care models

    This technical document develops the methodologies used to forecast the ratio of spending on health, education and long-term care to GDP in Spain for the 2070 horizon used in the Opinion on the long-term sustainability of Public Administrations: the incidence of demographics. The document develops three different methodologies: the long-term health expenditure estimation methodology, the ... Read more

    The impact of pension system reforms between 2021 and 2023

    Law 21/2021 on the guarantee of the purchasing power of pensions and other measures to reinforce the financial and social sustainability of the public pension system modified the system of rewards and punishments in force to date, established the revaluation of pensions with the CPI and repealed the sustainability factor. AIReF has assessed the impact ... Read more

    Population projections 2022-2070

    AIReF developed in 2018 various tools for the projection of pension spending, including models and tools to estimate the expected evolution of demographic phenomena -fertility, mortality and net immigration- with the purpose of projecting the total population by cohorts. On the occasion of the new population projections d for the Opinion on Long-term Sustainability in ... Read more

    Reform of the fiscal governance framework: a proposal for Spain for a debt anchor and expenditure rule

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes a technical document on fiscal governance reform, in which it proposes that each incoming government should propose a country-specific debt anchor at the beginning of its term of office and commit to a spending path derived from it for the entire legislature. This path, to be approved ... Read more

    Contribution to the European Commission’s public consultation on the reform of the european fiscal framework

    Reforma reglas fiscales
    WORKING PAPER CONTRIBUTION TO THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON THE REFORM OF THE EUROPEAN FISCAL FRAMEWORK PRESS RELEASE OF THE WORKING PAPER CONTRIBUTION TO THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION'S PUBLIC CONSULTATION ON THE REFORM OF THE EUROPEAN FISCAL FRAMEWORK