The European delegation was made up of senior representatives from the Directorate-General for Structural REFORM Support (DG REFORM) and the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), among them Declan Costello, Acting Director-General of DG REFORM, and Geraldine Mahieu, the new Deputy Director-General of DG ECFIN.
At the meeting, AIReF set out its view of the current situation and the outlook for the Spanish economy, as reflected in its recent assessments. Specifically, AIReF estimates that GDP growth will remain relatively solid in the short term, with a forecast of 2.2% in 2026 and around 2% in 2027 and 2028, supported, among other factors, by migration flows. However, AIReF warns of downside risks linked mainly to the geopolitical context.
On the fiscal front, AIReF expects the public deficit to rise to 2.6% of GDP this year and then stabilise at around 2.3%-2.4% of GDP until 2030. On public debt, the institution estimates that the debt-to-GDP ratio will keep falling over the coming years to around 95% in 2030, although it warns that, under unchanged policies, it would start rising again from the middle of the next decade, driven by population ageing.
AIReF also presented the conclusions of its recent update to the analysis of the pension expenditure rule. The institution again confirms that the rule is being met, but stresses that this result does not, on its own, guarantee the sustainability of public finances. It therefore considers it necessary to reform the rule and integrate it better into the new European fiscal framework.
The President of AIReF also underlined the importance of meeting medium-term fiscal commitments and of pressing ahead with a comprehensive reform of the national fiscal framework to bring it into line with the new European approach, which is built around a medium-term perspective.
Finally, AIReF reiterated the essential role of public spending reviews as a tool to improve the efficiency of public policies and reinforce the sustainability of public finances. The institution reaffirmed its commitment to carrying out high-quality assessments, aligned with OECD principles and designed to produce results.
