The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) published a study today on the pension expenditure rule, in which it reaffirms the conclusions of its 2025 report and once again confirms formal compliance with the rule. However, the institution also includes its analysis of the long-term sustainability of public finances and warns that compliance with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of public finances.
The study was conducted in accordance with the additional mandate requested of AIReF to update the analysis already carried out in 2025, incorporating the most recent macroeconomic data and available information on revenues. This mandate has ultimately taken the form of a study in which AIReF re-examines formal compliance with the expenditure rule set forth in current regulations and, furthermore, updates its analysis of the long-term sustainability of public finances in accordance with its own methodology. In this way, AIReF provides a comprehensive overview that is not limited to compliance with a specific indicator, but incorporates the expected evolution of revenue, expenditures, and public debt, with the aim of providing useful information for decision-making regarding fiscal policy and the sustainability of public finances.
