AIReF must report by April 1 on the estimated impact of the measures adopted on the pension system as of 2020. AIReF only has to estimate the impact of the revenue measures in the average of 2022-2050 and check whether or not the estimated expenditure for that same period in the European Commission’s Ageing Report minus the impact of the measures exceeds 13.3% of GDP.
In this first report, AIReF notes compliance with the pension expenditure rule, but warns that the sustainability of the system has not improved with respect to the forecasts published in 2023. In fact, AIReF estimates an average growth in pension expenditure of 3.4 points of GDP until 2050, compared to the 3 points it estimated two years ago.
