The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Initial General Government Budget Report 2024, in which it updates its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts incorporating the impact of the measures approved or extended since the last report.
AIReF raises its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2% and estimates that, in the medium term, the rate will gradually converge to potential growth. It maintains the forecast for the general government deficit as a whole at 3% of GDP and estimates that it will stabilise above 3% in the medium term, meaning that the margin for reducing the deficit without additional measures is exhausted.
AIReF estimates a growth in primary expenditure net of revenue measures of 4%, which means that the specific recommendation for Spain limiting the growth of this expenditure to 2.6% will not be met. AIReF considers that there is a risk of non-compliance with the national expenditure rule in 2024 by the Central Government, all the Autonomous Regions and ten of the Autonomous Regions that are monitored individually.