The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts that accompany the draft budget of Valencia for 2026, which presents estimates for GDP deflator and employment growth, in terms of the Spanish Regional Accounts (CRE), for the period 2025-2026, and gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of volume for the period 2025-2027, which differ from the latest forecasts in the Government of Spain’s macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
According to the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government (GG) authorities must include a report from AIReF indicating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2026, Valencia estimates GDP growth in terms of volume of 2.2%. This forecast is identical to AIReF’s, though it is slightly below the average of other agencies’ forecasts for the region (2.4%).
AIReF emphasises that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of great uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts refer to 2024 and were published in September 2025, but they may change in the publication scheduled for December. The new forecasts have revised the figures for 2022-2023 and added those for 2024.
In this context, the high level of uncertainty hinders the macroeconomic outlook and budgetary planning of the ARs. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could potentially impact compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that Valencia complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin it, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice recommendation to include a comparison with other independent forecasts and to provide information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underlying these forecasts.
The AR of Valencia also complies with the best practice recommendation to extend the forecast horizon and include estimates of the expected GDP deflator. However, a best practice recommendation is given to extend the scenarios presented, as the Fiscal-Structural Plan is valid for four years.
