The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the Chartered Community of Navarre’s 2027 draft budget. The Region presents estimates for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in volume terms, the implicit GDP deflator and employment, in terms of persons employed, for 2026–2029, which differ from the Government’s latest macroeconomic scenario forecasts for Spain as a whole.
Under the provisions of the Organic Law on the creation of the AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government authorities must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2027, Navarre forecasts GDP growth of 2% in volume terms. This forecast is virtually identical to AIReF’s estimate and lies within the range of forecasts by other institutions.
AIReF stresses that the macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions are prepared against a backdrop of high uncertainty, compounded by geopolitical risks. In addition, the latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts are those for 2024, published in December 2025. Preliminary figures for 2025 will be published in September, following the regular statistical revision of the national accounts, which will particularly affect the figures for recent years. This lack of information hampers macroeconomic forecasting and budgetary planning by the Autonomous Regions and, in a system as decentralised as Spain’s, could affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that Navarre complies with the recommendation to submit, before publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts underpinning it and the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and providing information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underlying its forecasts.
Navarre also complies with the best practice advice on including macroeconomic projections beyond the year covered by the budget. This is essential for assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the Government’s Medium-Term Plan (MTP).