The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has made significant progress in implementing the recommendations from the 2024 external evaluation, applying the comply-or-explain principle. The monitoring conducted as of December 2025 shows that the institution has strengthened its analytical capabilities, further developed its evaluation function, and made progress on impact, transparency, and accountability mechanisms.
AIReF has consolidated its use of advanced microsimulation tools to analyse major structural reforms, such as pensions, personal income tax, and the Minimum Living Income (IMV), and has developed new models addressing the adequacy, equity, and contributory nature of the pension system. These developments have broadened the scope and depth of the analyses published throughout 2025, while also strengthening the empirical basis of the institution’s opinions.
Further progress on estimating the effects of climate change
AIReF has also strengthened its capabilities on fiscal risks and climate change, publishing its first Opinion on fiscal risks in March 2025. This incorporates macroeconomic, environmental, and legal risks, and quantifies their potential impact on public finances. AIReF is currently working on its next Opinion on this subject, which will include, among other things, an analysis of macroeconomic risks using the MEGAIReF model, also presented in 2025. On climate change, following the approach taken in the second Opinion on the long-term sustainability of general government, AIReF is working on estimating and modelling its effects through physical and transition costs, which will be included in the scenarios of the next Opinion.
On the new European fiscal framework, AIReF has continued to analyse how the new rules are being applied and has incorporated available information on the commitments associated with Medium-Term Structural-Fiscal Plans into its reports.
On public spending evaluation, AIReF has made progress in designing a framework for prioritising evaluations, to be published in the first quarter of 2026, and has done more to incorporate suggestions from Parliament and other stakeholders when defining the areas to be evaluated. AIReF also plans to add a dedicated section on its website to gather suggestions from the public. AIReF has also continued to quantify more precisely the budgetary impact of its proposals and to enhance the transparency and replicability of its analyses by preserving anonymised microdata and potentially making it available to the research community.
President to appear before Parliament again in early 2026
The institution has also strengthened its accountability to Parliament. In May, President Cristina Herrero appeared on her own initiative before the Finance and Civil Service Committee to report on the recommendations received in the external evaluation. On 18 November, she appeared before the Toledo Pact Committee to explain AIReF’s approach to pensions. In early 2026, the President intends to request to appear before Parliament again to report on her term of office.
AIReF has also taken significant steps to strengthen its institutional impact and its presence in public and parliamentary debate. It has developed internal tools to monitor its mentions in the Spanish Parliament (Cortes Generales), intensified dialogue with parliamentary groups—who visited AIReF’s headquarters in September—and promoted its work through the launch of AIReF Divulga, a section on its website aimed at making fiscal analysis and public policy evaluation accessible to a non-specialist audience. The 2025 Public Employment Offer also includes a position for a communications expert.
Presentations in the Autonomous Regions
AIReF has also signed an agreement with the General Council of Economists that includes, among other collaborative activities, the possibility of presenting publications at its regional offices. AIReF intends to present the results of its forthcoming regional evaluations in the Autonomous Regions concerned, to maximise their impact.
Overall, the monitoring of the external evaluation recommendations confirms AIReF’s progress in strengthening its supervisory and evaluation functions, as well as its commitment to transparency, accountability, and the continuous improvement of its analytical tools. This comes in a context marked by the reform of the European fiscal framework and growing challenges to the sustainability of public finances.
