The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) today published the estimate of the GDP of the Autonomous Regions (ARs) for the first quarter of 2025 using the METCAP methodology (Methodology for Quarterly Estimation of GDP by Autonomous Region), which the institution created. METCAP provides the first freely-accessible estimate in Spain that offers these figures and its quarterly update is available for all interested parties on AIReF’s website.
These estimates are made once the National Statistics Institute (INE) publishes the advance quarterly data for Spain’s GDP. Thus, on April 29th, 2025, the data for the first quarter of the year were published. The summary of GDP growth estimates by Autonomous Region and their evolution in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year rates can be observed in the following tables (Spanish version):
In year-on-year terms, the Balearic Islands recorded the highest GDP growth (3.7%), followed by Murcia (3.1%) and the Canary Islands, Galicia and Madrid, all with growth of 3%. The average for Spain as a whole was 2.8%. In contrast, the weakest growth was recorded in Extremadura, with a rate of change of 2%, followed by Navarre (2.1%) and Cantabria (2.2%).
In terms of quarter-on-quarter rates, Madrid, Valencia and Andalusia stood out for their expansion, with GDP growth of 0.7%, above the 0.6% increase for Spain as a whole. In contrast, Galicia (0.3%), Asturias (0.3%) and Extremadura (0.4%) recorded the lowest rates.
As usual, AIReF provides users with a user-friendly interface (accessible through the website), which allows data to be compared between the ARs and the Spanish GDP data.
The quantitative methodology used combines three types of statistical information available for regional analysis: monthly data on short-term economic indicators disaggregated at a regional level, annual data compiled in national accounting terms by the Spanish Regional Accounts (CRE) and, lastly, estimates for the country as a whole published by the Quarterly National Accounts (CNTR). This combines the speed and timeliness of short-term indicators, the structural information provided by the CRE and the quarterly national benchmark to ensure the consistency of individual regional estimates.
