The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budgets for 2026 for Castile and Leon and Navarre. Both present estimates of GDP growth in terms of volume, the GDP deflator and employment in terms of persons employed that differ from the latest forecasts in the macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
According to the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government (GG) authorities must include a report from the institution indicating whether they have been endorsed.
Specifically, Castile and Leon estimates GDP growth in volume terms of 2.2% for 2026. This forecast is at the upper end of the central range of the AIReF estimate and exceeds the range of estimates provided by other agencies for the region.
For its part, Navarre estimates GDP growth in volume terms of 1.8% for 2026. This forecast is virtually identical to that made by AIReF and falls within the range of estimates made by other agencies for the region.
AIReF emphasises that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (AR) are made in a context of great uncertainty. In addition to the risks posed by the geopolitical environment, the ARs face another fundamental source of uncertainty: the lack of essential information necessary to prepare their macroeconomic scenarios. Specifically, the latest figures available from the Spanish Regional Accounts correspond to 2023, published in December 2024. These figures are not consistent with the new data from the Spanish National Accounts, which became available following the publication of the regular Statistical Revision that affected the figures for 2022 to 2024.
AIReF points out that this lack of information hinders the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts and budgetary planning by the ARs, which, in a system as decentralised as Spain’s, could potentially impact compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that Castile and Leon complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin it, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice recommendation regarding the inclusion of a comparison with other independent forecasts and the provision of information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions underlying its forecasts. The region also complies with the best practice recommendation regarding the inclusion of macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated, which is essential for assessing the consistency of the ARs’ forecasts with the medium-term Fiscal-Structural Plan presented by the Government. However, this extension refers to GDP and employment. Therefore, a best practice recommendation is made regarding the extension of the forecast horizon for the implicit GDP deflator beyond the period covered by the annual general budget.
For its part, Navarre also complies with the recommendation to submit information on the macroeconomic forecasts on which it is based, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice recommendation for including a comparison with other forecasts and providing information on the assumptions used. In addition, it also complies with the best practice recommendation on the inclusion of projections beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated.
