The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts that accompany the 2026 draft budget for the Autonomous Region of Castile-La Mancha. This Region presents estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in terms of volume and current prices, the GDP deflator, and employment in terms of persons employed from the Regional Accounts (CRE) for the period 2024-2029, which differ from the macroeconomic scenario of the Spanish Government for the national total.
According to the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government sub-sectors must include a report from AIReF indicating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2026, Castilla-La Mancha estimates GDP growth in volume terms of 1.9%. This forecast is higher than that of AIReF (central forecast of 1.7%), although it falls within the central forecast range. It is also within the range of forecasts made by other agencies.
It should be noted that the macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions are made in a context of high uncertainty due to the geopolitical environment and are based on the latest figures available from the CRE for 2023, published in December 2024. The figures for 2024 will be published on September 30, following the publication of the regular statistical review of the national accounts, which will particularly affect the figures for recent years.
AIReF highlights that Castilla-La Mancha complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, the information on the macroeconomic forecasts that support it and the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the good practice advice regarding the inclusion of a comparison with other independent forecasts and the provision of information on the econometric techniques, models, and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions on which its forecasts are based.
The AIReF adds that the community also complies with the good practice advice regarding the inclusion of macroeconomic projections beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated, which is essential for assessing the consistency of the autonomous communities’ forecasts with the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan presented by the Government and for providing information on the expected path of the GDP deflator.
