- The Government estimates growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, figures similar to those presented by AIReF in October
- The Government’s macroeconomic scenario estimates a greater contribution from domestic demand and a more negative contribution from the foreign sector
- In terms of prices, the Government’s forecasts project GDP deflator growth rates of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, similar to those forecast by AIReF
- AIReF reiterates its request to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, as well as the Ministry of Finance to provide more information on the budgetary and fiscal measures included in the macroeconomic scenario
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) today endorsed the macroeconomic forecasts of the draft General State Budget for 2026, which estimate real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, figures that are within the most likely range of confidence intervals around AIReF’s forecasts published on October 29th.
AIReF states that the purpose of this report is to verify that the budgetary scenario is based on realistic macroeconomic forecasts, given the uncertainty linked to a context marked by numerous geopolitical and trade policy shocks at the international level, and by the lack of information on potential fiscal measures contained in the budgets.
Compared with AIReF’s estimates, the Government’s macroeconomic scenario considers a greater contribution from domestic demand to GDP growth, which would offset a more negative contribution from the foreign sector. Within this dynamic, gross fixed capital formation and private consumption would be the main drivers of growth. These differences in composition are justified, in part, because the Government’s forecasts include data from the advance Quarterly National Accounts for the third quarter of the year, an element not yet incorporated into AIReF’s forecasts.
In terms of prices, the Government’s forecasts project GDP deflator growth rates of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, which are similar to those forecast by AIReF, at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. As a result, the nominal GDP forecast by the Government would reach 5.5% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, figures very similar to the 5.6% and 4.4% in the AIReF scenario.
On the international front, the primary downside risks to growth stem from trade policy and financial market developments. On the domestic front, AIReF considers that the risks are balanced. On the one hand, increased foreign immigration could help sustain growth above the considered level in the short term, while the end of the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan could lead to a greater slowdown in investment than anticipated.
AIReF emphasises that more information is required on the budgetary and fiscal measures incorporated into the macroeconomic scenario, particularly in the context of the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan. It therefore reiterates its request to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Enterprise, as well as the Ministry of Finance, to provide more information on the budgetary and fiscal measures incorporated into the macroeconomic scenario.
