The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budget of Catalonia for 2026, which presents estimates of GDP growth in terms of volume, the GDP deflator and employment in terms of full-time equivalent jobs, for the period 2025-2026, which differ from the latest forecasts in the Government of Spain’s macroeconomic scenario.
In accordance with the provisions of the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government (GG) authorities must include a report from AIReF indicating whether they have been endorsed.
Catalonia estimates GDP growth in terms of volume of 2.1% for 2026. This forecast is lower than AIReF’s central forecast of 2.2% and is below the range of forecasts made by other agencies, although some do not yet include the recent revisions to the Regional Accounts.
AIReF emphasises that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of great uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts, which refer to 2024, were published in September 2025. However, they may change in the publication scheduled for December. The new forecasts have revised the figures for 2022-2023 and added those for 2024.
In this context, the high level of uncertainty hinders the macroeconomic outlook and budgetary planning of the ARs. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could potentially impact compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that Catalonia complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, the information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin the budget, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice recommendation regarding the inclusion of a comparison with other independent forecasts and the provision of information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions underpinning its forecasts. However, a greater degree of detail would be desirable. AIReF reiterates the best practice recommendation to provide expenditure estimates in terms of the Regional Accounts.
Catalonia does not include macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated, which is essential for assessing the consistency of the ARs’ forecasts with the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan, although it does provide information on the expected forecast of the GDP deflator. In this regard, a best practice recommendation is provided to extend the scenarios presented, as the Fiscal-Structural Plan is valid for four years.
