The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budgets for 2026 from Galicia and Andalusia. Both regions present estimates of growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), in terms of volume and current prices, GDP deflator and employment that differ from the Government’s macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
According to the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government (GG) authorities must include a report from AIReF indicating whether they have been endorsed.
Specifically, Galicia estimates GDP growth in volume terms of 1.9% for 2026. This forecast is identical to that made by AIReF and falls within the range of forecasts made by other agencies for the region. However, the forecasts of some agencies do not yet include the recent revisions of the Spanish Regional Accounts (SRA).
For its part, Andalusia forecasts GDP growth in terms of volume of 2.3%. This forecast is slightly above that made by AIReF, but within the range of forecasts made by other agencies. In this case, the forecasts do not yet include the recent revisions introduced in the SRA’s preliminary figures.
AIReF emphasises that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of high uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The latest figures from the SRA refer to 2024 and were published in September 2025, but they could be subject to changes in the publication scheduled by the National Statistics Institute (INE) for December. The new forecasts have revised the figures for 2022-2023 and added those for 2024.
In this context, AIReF points out that the high level of uncertainty hinders the macroeconomic outlook and budgetary planning of the ARs. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could potentially impact compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
Best practice recommendations
AIReF highlights that both Galicia and Andalusia comply with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin it, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. They also comply with the best practice recommendation to include a comparison with other independent forecasts and to provide information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underlying its forecasts. Furthermore, they also comply with the best practice recommendation regarding the inclusion of macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated, which is essential for assessing the consistency of the forecasts of the ARs with the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan presented by the Government.
