The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the 2027 draft budgets of the Autonomous Regions of Castile and Leon and Extremadura. These regions present estimates for GDP growth, the GDP deflator and employment for 2026–2029, which differ from the Government’s latest macroeconomic scenario forecasts for Spain as a whole.
Under the provisions of the Organic Law on the creation of the AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government authorities must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
AIReF stresses that the macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions are prepared against a backdrop of high uncertainty, compounded by geopolitical risks. In addition, the latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts are those for 2024, published in December 2025. Preliminary figures for 2025 will be published in September, following the regular statistical revision of the national accounts, which will particularly affect the figures for recent years. This lack of information hinders the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts and the budgetary planning of the Autonomous Regions. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this may affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
Castile and Leon
For 2027, Castile and Leon forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% in volume terms. This forecast lies at the upper end of AIReF’s central estimate range and above the range of forecasts by other institutions for the region.
AIReF highlights that Castile and Leon complies with the recommendation to submit, before publication of the draft budget, information on the forecasts underpinning it and the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and providing information on the econometric techniques, models, parameters and assumptions used in its forecasts.
The Region also complies with the best practice advice on including projections beyond the year covered by the budget. This is essential for assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the Medium-Term Plan (MTP). On this occasion, it also provides information on the implicit GDP deflator through to 2029, in line with AIReF’s best practice advice.
Extremadura
Extremadura forecasts GDP growth of 1.8% in volume terms for 2027. This forecast is in line with the central forecasts of both AIReF and other institutions (1.9% in each case).
AIReF highlights that Extremadura complies with the recommendation to submit, before publication of the draft budget, information on the forecasts underpinning it and the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and providing information on the econometric techniques, models, parameters and assumptions used in its forecasts.
The Region also complies with the best practice advice on including macroeconomic projections beyond the year covered by the budget, including the projected path of the implicit GDP deflator. Extending the forecast horizon in this way is essential for assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the MTP.