The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budget of Extremadura for 2026. The document sets out growth projections in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment for the period 2025–2028, which differ from the Spanish Government’s macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
Under the provisions of the Organic Law on the creation of the AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2026, Extremadura estimates GDP growth in volume terms of 1.9% for 2026, in line with AIReF’s central forecast. This forecast also lies within the range of forecasts by other bodies for the region.
AIReF notes that the macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (CC.AA.) are prepared in a context of high uncertainty and geopolitical risks. In this context, the high level of uncertainty makes it difficult to forecast the macroeconomic outlook and to plan the budgets of the Autonomous Regions, which, in a system as decentralised as Spain’s, may potentially affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments. In addition, the latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts are those for 2024, published in December 2025.
AIReF notes that Extremadura complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to publication of the draft budget, the information on the underlying macroeconomic forecasts together with the corresponding endorsement request. It also follows the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and on providing information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions underlying its projections.
Extremadura also complies with the good-practice advice on including macroeconomic projections beyond the year for which the budget is drawn up, an issue that is essential for assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the Spanish Government’s Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan (MTP).
