The Government requested the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) to carry out a study on the macroeconomic and budgetary scenario for 2018 and 2019 under the assumption of constant policies. Article 5 of Organic Law 6/2013, of November 14, on the creation of AIReF, contemplates that this institution may carry out studies at the request, among others, of the Government of the Nation.
AIReF estimates a central deficit scenario for the general government as a whole of 2.7% and 2.2% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, respectively. This forecast implies a deficit reduction of 0.4% of GDP in 2018 and 0.5% in 2019. This path of public deficit reduction, under the assumption of constant policies, is consistent with an inertial macroeconomic scenario characterized by the maintenance of relatively high activity growth rates and a certain recovery in prices and wages.