In this report, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) assesses the forecasts accompanying the draft 2024 budget of the Basque Country, which presents estimates of GDP growth, in volume terms and at current prices, of its supply and demand components, of the GDP deflator and of the employment and unemployment rate for the period 2023-2024, different from the latest estimates of the macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
The Basque Country estimates a GDP growth in volume terms of 2.1% in 2024. This forecast is between the 40-60th percentile of AIReF’s estimates and is lower than the range of forecasts made by other agencies for the autonomous community, although the recent deterioration of the European economies and of the indicators related to industrial production could point to downside risks. The nominal GDP growth expected by the region is slightly higher than AIReF’s forecast, although this is feasible given the volatility of the deflators.