The Network of EU Independent Fiscal Institutions forecasts positive but uneven economic growth across regions

05 July 2021

The Network of EU Independent Fiscal Institutions (EUIFIs) has published on its website a new edition of the European Fiscal Monitor (EFM) on the pace of economic recovery in Europe after the exceptional measures taken in the wake of COVID-19. The report points to positive growth in 2021, but with an uneven pace of recovery across Member States. While some will reach pre-pandemic GDP levels in 2021, some expect to do so in 2022, as in the case of Spain, and even in 2023 in other countries.  

As vaccines are rolled out and restrictions relaxed, European economies are recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, most recent projections for 2021 are less optimistic than earlier estimates, given the further intense disruption caused by Covid-19 early this year.  Both the projected real GDP growth and public balances were revised downwards by 1 percentage point on average.
All countries are expected to record positive economic growth in 2021 – the anticipated average real GDP growth is 3%. The pace of economic recovery in Europe appears to be uneven, as some countries are set to reach their GDP pre-pandemic levels in 2021, while others expect to reach it in 2022 or 2023.
This EFM gives an overview of the activities of 32 national IFIs and the fiscal measures adopted in response to Covid-19 in 26 EU Member States and the UK. The monitor is based on a survey of EU IFIs conducted in May and June 2021, and is largely based on information linked to spring 2021 stability and convergence programmes (SCPs).  The information depends on the mandate of the national IFI and it is obtained from them or from the national governments.
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