AIReF publishes the first quarterly estimate of the composition of national GDP by Region

07 May 2020

Mipred PIB regional

The METCAP methodology makes it possible to estimate the composition of quarterly national GDP by Regions.

Today the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) published the estimate of regional GDP for the first quarter of 2020 through the methodology called METCAP (Metodología de Estimación Trimestral por Comunidades Autónomas del PIB – Methodology for Quarterly Estimation of GDP by Region), which was created by the institution. METCAP provides the first open access estimate in Spain that offers this data and its update is available each quarter on AIReF’s website for anyone interested.

The data is published once  the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (National Statistics Institute – INE) has published the advance quarterly GDP figure for Spain, as was the case with the data published on 30 April 2020.

The summary of the data estimating GDP growth by Region and its evolution in quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year terms can be seen in the following table:Tabla MIPRED

AIReF has also provided users with an easy-to-use interface, accessible online, that allows users to compare regional data between both between the Regions themselves and with the Spanish GDP figure.

The quantitative methodology used combines three types of statistical information available for regional analysis: monthly data for disaggregated short-term indicators of territorial scope; the annual data compiled in national accounting terms by Regional Accounts (RA); and, finally, the estimates for the nation as a whole published by the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA). In this way, the speed and currency of the short-term indicators are combined with the the structural information provided by RA as well as the quarterly national reference that ensures the consistency of individual regional estimates.

On this occasion, as the INE itself warns in the publication of the advance Quarterly National Accounts “… the various implications that the restrictions imposed on the movement of people and some economic activities during the second half of March may have had on the quality and availability of many data sources used in the compilation of national accounts and the inherent difficulty in the statistical measurement of a change in the situation of such magnitude, suggest that future revisions of the results published today may be of a greater magnitude than usual … ”. This is fully applicable to the estimate made using METCAP.

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