NEWS

AIReF endorses the macroeconomic forecasts of Madrid, Andalusia, Balearic Islands, Catalonia, Canary Islands and Castile and Leon

29 October 2021

airef

  • It endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by Madrid for 2022 as prudent and those for 2021 as very unlikely
  • It endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by Andalusia for 2022 as prudent and those for 2021 as very unlikely
  • It endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by the Balearic Islands for 2022 as very unlikely and also those for 2021 as unlikely
  • It endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by Catalonia for 2022 as prudent and those for 2021 as unlikely
  • It endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by the Canary Islands for 2022 as unlikely and also those for 2021 as unlikely
  • It endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by Castile and Leon for 2022 as prudent and those for 2021 as unlikely

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the macroeconomic forecasts put forward by the regions of Madrid, Andalusia, the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, the Canary Islands and Castile and Leon for 2022. While it differentiates between them, it considers the forecasts feasible in the current context of uncertainty.

According to the Law on the Establishment of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all public authorities must be reported on by the institution, indicating whether they have been endorsed. Specifically, the report published today assess the macroeconomic forecasts that will accompany the 2022 draft budgets of the regions of Madrid, Andalusia, the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, the Canary Islands and Castile and Leon.

AIReF has resumed the probabilistic analysis based around a single scenario, discarding the approach based on alternative scenarios that was used with the outbreak of the health crisis. On the basis of this scenario, the institution endorses the forecast scenario prepared by these six regions for 2022.

In addition to assessing the degree of realism of these forecasts, AIReF assesses whether the scenarios meet the requirements established by European regulations for Member States of the European Union (EU), as specified in Article 4 of Directive 2011/85/EU of 8 November 2011.

 

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