The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility, AAI (AIReF) has the legal mandate to report on the budgetary execution, public debt and expenditure rule in 2022 of the General Government (GG). Along with this report, AIReF also publishes the individual reports on each Autonomous Region and the supplementary report on the Local Governments (LGs). As the fiscal rules for2021 are still suspended, the analysis focuses on the General Government’s budgetary and sustainability forecasts. AIReF’s fiscal supervision also takes on greater importance as a guarantor of the sustainability of the General Government.
In this report, AIReF updates its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts in a context in which downside risks to economic growth mainly predominate. In its report on the Stability Programme Update published in May, as part of a medium–term analysis, AIReF estimated a GG deficit of 4.2% for 2022, on the basis of GDP growth of 4.3% in real terms and 8.2% in nominal terms. It warned of the existence of downside risks associated with the energy crisis and the persistence of inflation, which raised the likelihood of inflationary spirals and
loss of competitiveness, while reducing the purchasing power of households.