The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts for 2023 presented by Murcia. These macroeconomic forecasts are made in a context of uncertainty that makes it difficult to assess them at a national level, but even more so at a territorial level, since the latest information available on the Spanish Regional Accounts refers to the year 2020 and is not consistent with the information for the country as a whole after the statistical revisions of last September.
According to the Murcia scenario, the region’s GDP could grow by 4% in 2022. Although the forecast is included within the range of the forecasts of other agencies and private institutions, AIReF considers that it could be optimistic, given the worsening economic growth outlook. For 2023, Murcia estimates GDP growth of 0.9% in volume terms and 5.4% at current prices, similar to AIReF’s estimate. This forecast is within the range of estimates of the consensus of analysts of the autonomous communities and is lower than that contemplated in the macroeconomic table accompanying the General State Budget. Taking these factors into consideration, AIReF considers the forecasts to be feasible and, as such, endorses them.