The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Report on the forecasts of the 2024 Budgetary Plan in which it endorses the macroeconomic scenario that accompanies the 2024 Budget Plan, which envisages real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2023 and 2% in 2024.
These figures are in the central range of the probability bands prepared by AIReF based on its own scenarios. In the area of prices, the Government’s scenario maintains high GDP deflator growth rates in both 2023 and 2024 (5.9% and 3.6% in 2023 and 2024, respectively), compared to the 5.8% and 3.2% expected by AIReF. This means that, in nominal terms, the Government’s forecasts are within the central range of the bands estimated by AIReF, although at the upper limit, indicating the existence of possible downside risks.