AIReF publishes its own demographic forecasts

04/10/2018 The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF, as it is known in Spanish) publishes its own demographic forecasts, including a measure of uncertainty and using as much as possible information coming from structural relationships. AIReF’s forecast methodology is based on a two-pronged approach, intending it to be statistically sound but also consistent with basic economic theory. In particular, we have represented fertility and mortality curves through time as a multiple time series model. Instead of letting them drift freely we have anchored them to a long term level based on a panel of European countries, under the hypothesis that, in the long run, convergence between countries similar along a series of characteristics will be more important than more idiosyncratic characteristics. Migration, on the other hand, has been forecast using a gravity model developed specially for this project.  

• Press release (Spanish version)
• Presentation
• Occasional Paper (Spanish version)
• Working Paper: Introducing Uncertainty on Fertility and Survival in the Spanish Population Projections: A Monte Carlo Approach
• Working Paper: Predicting Spanish Emigration and Immigration