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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Report on the Stability Program Update 2023-2026

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Report on the Stability Program Update 2023-2026 in which it states that the Government is complying with its commitment to reduce the public deficit to below 3% of GDP over the projection horizon, although, according to the institution's forecasts, this variable will stabilize at 3% from ... Read more

    Endorsement of the macroeconomic forecasts of the Stability Program 2023-2026

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility publishes its endorsement of the macroeconomic forecasts that accompany the Stability Program Update (SPU) for the years 2023-2026. AIReF considers that both the real and nominal GDP path are feasible and, therefore, endorses the medium-term macroeconomic scenario proposed by the Government. However, it stresses that the endorsement has been ... Read more

    Supplementary Individual Assessment Report on the 2023 Budgets of Local Governments

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has to issue a report in April each year on the variations in the budgets to be executed in the year by the Public Administrations (PAs) with respect to the fundamental lines drawn up at the start of the budget cycle. Within the analysis of the Local Corporations ... Read more

    Individual Reports on the Initial Budgets of the Autonomous Regions (AR) for 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the individual reports on the Initial Budgets of the Autonomous Regions (CCAA) for 2023, with which it completes the global analysis of the Public Administrations published last April 5. For the subsector as a whole, the institution estimates a deficit of 0.3% in 2023, similar to the ... Read more

    Report on the Initial Budget of the General Government 2023

    The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes the Initial Budget Report for the Public Administrations 2023, in which it updates its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, incorporating the impact of the measures approved or extended since the last report. AIReF maintains the growth estimate at 1.6% for 2023 and raises the public deficit estimate for ... Read more

    Population projections 2022-2070

    AIReF developed in 2018 various tools for the projection of pension spending, including models and tools to estimate the expected evolution of demographic phenomena -fertility, mortality and net immigration- with the purpose of projecting the total population by cohorts. On the occasion of the new population projections d for the Opinion on Long-term Sustainability in ... Read more

    The impact of pension system reforms between 2021 and 2023

    Law 21/2021 on the guarantee of the purchasing power of pensions and other measures to reinforce the financial and social sustainability of the public pension system modified the system of rewards and punishments in force to date, established the revaluation of pensions with the CPI and repealed the sustainability factor. AIReF has assessed the impact ... Read more

    Methodology of health, education and long-term care models

    This technical document develops the methodologies used to forecast the ratio of spending on health, education and long-term care to GDP in Spain for the 2070 horizon used in the Opinion on the long-term sustainability of Public Administrations: the incidence of demographics. The document develops three different methodologies: the long-term health expenditure estimation methodology, the ... Read more

    Income and unemployment modeling methodology

    The medium-term resources of the fiscal sheet correspond to those estimated by AIReF for its fiscal scenario published in October 2022. Starting in 2027, it is divided between tax revenues and social contributions and the rest of the revenues. The rest of the income is considered to evolve at the same rate as nominal GDP. ... Read more

    Opinion on the long-term sustainability of public administrations: The impact of demographics

    The mission of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) is to ensure effective compliance with the principle of financial sustainability by the Public Administrations (PAs), as this is a fundamental determinant of economic growth and the well-being of the population in the medium and long term. This requires an analysis of the challenges facing ... Read more