This document presents AIReF’s review of the MIPred model, which is used for real-time GDP estimation. The COVID-19 pandemic was the first in a series of unprecedented shocks to the global economy, which, in the field of economic forecasting, has necessitated adjustments to numerous models and econometric tools.
The MIPred model has not been immune to these circumstances; therefore, some time after that initial shock, a thorough review is necessary to address both the challenges posed by the inclusion of such an extreme shock as the pandemic in the sample period and any possible changes in the relationship between GDP and certain key indicators that may have occurred in recent years.
