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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions 2016-07-21

    Related documents: Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions

    Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

    This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more

    Working Paper 3/ 2015: Quarterly regional GDP flash estimates for the Spanish economy (METCAP model)

    In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business … Read more

    Working Paper 2/2014 Spanish Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

    This note develops an overarching debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework, encompassing three of its main dimensions: (i) a traditional (deterministic) sustainability exercise, based on a simple accounting application involving the debt accumulation equation; (ii) an assessment of the realism of the assumptions underlying the deterministic debt projections; and (iii) a stochastic exercise aimed at understanding … Read more

    Compliance with Deficit and Debt Targets

    Compliance with Deficit and Debt Targets Executive Summary 1 There are risks of non-compliance with the public  debt threshold established for 2020. 2 The assessment of the General Government’s  (GG) compliance with the appropriate debt targets  must be performed at all levels comparing the  initially set target and the actual data observed,  both falling under … Read more

    Working Paper No. 1/2014: Understand the financial sustainability

    Working Paper No. 1/2014: Understand the financial sustainability Access to Working Paper Annex