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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the Autonomous Regions’ budgets for 2016

    José Luis Escrivá, presidente de la AIReF 2

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the Autonomous Regions’ budgets for 2016

    Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

    This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget

    José Luis Escrivá, presidente de la AIReF 2

    Access to Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget Related documents: Executive Summary – Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget Press release Presentation Graphs

    Working Paper 3/ 2015: Quarterly regional GDP flash estimates for the Spanish economy (METCAP model)

    In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business … Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the Autonomous Regions’ Budgets for 2015

    Access to Report on the macroeconomic forecast in the Autonomous Regions’ Budgets for 2015 Related documents: Press Release Annex

    Working Paper 2/2014 Spanish Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

    This note develops an overarching debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework, encompassing three of its main dimensions: (i) a traditional (deterministic) sustainability exercise, based on a simple accounting application involving the debt accumulation equation; (ii) an assessment of the realism of the assumptions underlying the deterministic debt projections; and (iii) a stochastic exercise aimed at understanding … Read more

    Working Paper No. 1/2014: Understand the financial sustainability

    Working Paper No. 1/2014: Understand the financial sustainability Access to Working Paper Annex