Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the Autonomous Regions’ budgets for 2016
Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the Autonomous Regions’ budgets for 2016
Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the Autonomous Regions’ budgets for 2016
This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more
Access to Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget Related documents: Executive Summary – Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget Press release Presentation Graphs
In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business … Read more
Access to Report on the macroeconomic forecast in the Autonomous Regions’ Budgets for 2015 Related documents: Press Release Annex
This note develops an overarching debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework, encompassing three of its main dimensions: (i) a traditional (deterministic) sustainability exercise, based on a simple accounting application involving the debt accumulation equation; (ii) an assessment of the realism of the assumptions underlying the deterministic debt projections; and (iii) a stochastic exercise aimed at understanding … Read more
Access to Report on macroeconomic forecasts. Draft State Budget for 2015
Working Paper No. 1/2014: Understand the financial sustainability Access to Working Paper Annex