Report on the Macroeconomic forecasts in the Budget Plan Project for 2017
Report on the Macroeconomic forecasts in the Budget Plan Project for 2017
GDP
Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions 2016-07-21
Related documents: Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions
AIReF has revised upwards its projection for the general government deficit ratio to a range between 4,1% and 4,7% of GDP, depending on the implementation of the measures committed by the Government
Report on expected compliance with the 2016 budget stability, government debt and expenditure rule targets by the Public Administrations Presentación
Report on the Stability Programme Update 2016-2019
REPORT ON THE STABILITY PROGRAMME UPDATE 2016-2019
Assessment of the Kingdom of Spain’s Draft Stability Programme Update 2016-2019
Assessment of the Kingdom of Spain’s Draft Stability Programme Update 2016-2019 Related documents: Presentation
Reports on the main lines of the budgets of the Autonomous Regions for 2016
From its horizontal analysis of the AR subsector AIReF concludes that there is a risk of non-compliance with the budget stability target in 2016, set at -0.3% of GDP. This risk stems primarily and in general from the aforementioned significant deviation from the 2015 stability target and from the uncertainty about the materialisation of certain … Read more
Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)
This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more
Working Paper 3/ 2015: Quarterly regional GDP flash estimates for the Spanish economy (METCAP model)
In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business … Read more
Reports on the Draft Spanish Stability Programme Update 2015-2018
Reports on the Draft Spanish Stability Programme Update 2015-2018
AIReF recommneds the implementation of corrective measures in 7 Autonomous Communities due to risks of noncompliance with 2014 deficit target
Deviation from the budget balance target (set to -1% of GDP) in Extremadura, Cataluña, Valencia y Murcia could exceed 1% of GDP whereas in Castilla-La Mancha, Andalucia and the Balearic Islands deviations could go up to 0.3% of GDP. There is practical certainty of deviation in the Autonomous Regions of Extremadura, Catalonia, Valencia and Murcia and … Read more