- The request for endorsement has been made for the first time for the forecasts included in the Economic Situation Report-the starting point for drawing up the 2027 General State Budget-in line with the practice advocated by AIReF.
- AIReF endorses the Government’s macroeconomic scenario for 2026-2029, as it falls within the central ranges of its forecasts.
- The Government forecasts real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2% in 2029, figures similar to those estimated by AIReF.
- AIReF identifies downside risks linked mainly to the international environment and to the completion of the projects financed with Next Generation EU funds.
- AIReF’s scenario does not incorporate the effect of any economic policy measures that might be implemented after the cut-off date of this report (26 June 2026).
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) today endorsed the Government’s macroeconomic forecasts for 2026-2029, as set out in the Economic Situation Report, after being asked for the first time to report on this scenario at the start of the process of drawing up the 2027 General State Budget. AIReF considers that this practice helps ensure that the budgetary stability objectives are underpinned, from the very start of the budgetary process, by realistic macroeconomic forecasts.
The endorsement follows a request from the Government concerning the macroeconomic scenario that serves as the basis for drawing up the Economic Situation Report 2026-2029. This report, prepared annually by the Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Enterprise, contains a multiannual macroeconomic framework serving two purposes: to set the reference GDP growth rate for the expenditure rule and to assess the economic situation envisaged for each year of the period.
Although the Organic Law establishing AIReF requires endorsement of the forecasts incorporated into the draft budgets or the Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan, AIReF has consistently argued that this analysis should also be carried out on the scenario that marks the start of the budget process, given its relevance for the preparation of the budgets of the different administrations.
Macroeconomic scenario
The Government forecasts real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2% in 2029. These rates are similar to those projected by AIReF and fall within its confidence intervals. The growth expected for 2026 is in line with the growth figures published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) and with the strength of the most recent indicators. The real growth currently expected by AIReF stands at 2.5%. AIReF also shares the scenario of a gradual moderation in growth from 2027 onwards, associated with the progressive completion of the projects financed with Next Generation EU funds, lower net immigration and a slowdown in tourism revenue.
As regards prices, the Government’s and AIReF’s forecasts also show no significant differences. The projected growth rates for the GDP deflator are similar throughout the projection horizon and, as a result, the Government’s nominal GDP growth forecasts are slightly above those of AIReF in 2026 and 2027, although within its confidence intervals. For the period 2026-2029 as a whole, the Government’s nominal GDP scenario remains within the central range of AIReF’s forecasts.
As a result, AIReF endorses the Government’s macroeconomic scenario for 2026-2029. In aggregate terms, the scenario falls within the central band of AIReF’s probability ranges, in both real and nominal terms.
Risks
However, AIReF considers that downside risks persist for the macroeconomic scenario, mainly owing to international uncertainty. These include a possible resurgence of tensions in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and its impact on commodity prices and supply chains.
On the domestic front, AIReF notes that the completion of the Next Generation EU funds could have a greater-than-expected impact on public investment and that the persistence of an inflation differential relative to Spain’s main trading partners, together with moderate productivity growth, could weigh on the competitiveness of the Spanish economy. AIReF also sees upside risks in the path of the unemployment rate, as it projects a slower decline than the Government does in a context of high immigration and labour force growth.
AIReF’s scenario does not incorporate the effect of any economic policy measures that might be implemented after the cut-off date of this report (26 June 2026).