The President of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), Cristina Herrero, took part today in the closing session of the presentation of the results of the World Bank’s “Entreprises Surveys” held at the Spanish Chamber of Commerce. In her speech, she stressed the importance of carrying out surveys such as the one presented by the World Bank to obtain objective data that allow us to understand the environment faced by Spanish companies. The President highlighted the importance of productivity as a driver of growth which, in view of the ageing population, should take over from the accumulation of factors that have historically characterised the Spanish growth pattern.
In its latest report, AIReF notes that the economy is maintaining high growth rates in an increasingly adverse environment, but the medium and long-term outlook is more moderate. In the medium term, real GDP is projected to gradually slow to 1.5% in 2029. And in the long term, in the full scenario from 2050 to 2070 included in the Opinion on Sustainability, real growth of the Spanish economy is projected to tend towards 1.3%. This scenario, as the President explained, is based on an assumption of productivity growth of 1.1%, which represents a change with respect to its historical behaviour.
In this regard, she highlighted the difficulties the Spanish economy is encountering in relaunching productivity growth, as AIReF confirmed at the workshops it held last year with various experts on matters with an impact on long-term sustainability. AIReF devoted one of these sessions to productivity and at the workshop the experts noted these difficulties linked to specific factors in the Spanish economy, such as low investment in human capital, a complex institutional and regulatory environment and insufficient adoption of advanced technologies, among others.
In this context, Cristina Herrero considered it essential to invest in information, communication and intangible technologies, as well as to improve the education and training of workers and business organisation to maximise the potential of these technologies. She stated that this is particularly relevant now that the reforms and investments that have been launched under the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP) do not seem to be having the transformative impact that was originally expected.
In fact, the lack of adequate training is the main limitation pointed out by companies in the survey presented at this forum, although other factors such as labour regulations, tax rates and access to financing are also mentioned. In this regard, Cristina Herrero recalled that AIReF has performed two evaluations within the framework of the Spending Review (public sector financial instruments to support productive sectors in Spain and financial instruments supported by the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan) which reveal that there is a need to strengthen institutional coordination in this area in Spain.
In her opinion, in a complex environment marked by uncertainty and with important challenges in terms of growth and productivity, a resilient business sector that can operate in a predictable regulatory environment and with adequate human capacity is crucial.
