The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the Autonomous Region of Aragon’s 2027 draft budget. The Region presents estimates for GDP growth and the GDP deflator, in volume and current-price terms, for 2026–2028, as well as employment estimates for 2026–2027, which differ from the Government’s latest macroeconomic scenario forecasts for Spain as a whole.
Under the provisions of the Organic Law on the creation of the AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government authorities must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2027, Aragon forecasts GDP growth of 2% in volume terms. This forecast matches AIReF’s estimate and lies at the lower end of the range of forecasts by other institutions for the region.
AIReF stresses that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of high uncertainty and geopolitical risks. In addition, the latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts are those for 2024, published in December 2025. Preliminary figures for 2025 will be published in September, following the regular statistical revision of the national accounts, which will particularly affect the figures for recent years. This lack of information hinders the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts and the budgetary planning of the Autonomous Regions. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this may affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that Aragon complies with the recommendation to submit, before publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts underpinning it and the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and providing information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underlying its forecasts. However, AIReF reiterates its best practice advice that employment estimates should be provided in terms of persons employed, as measured in the Regional Accounts.
Aragon also complies with the best practice advice on including macroeconomic projections beyond the year covered by the budget. This is essential for assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the Government’s Medium-Term Plan (MTP). It also provides information on the forecast path of the GDP deflator.