- The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes its 2025 Action Plan, which incorporates new developments/changes following the entry into force of the new European fiscal rules and many of the recommendations of the external evaluation to which it was subjected in 2024
- In 2025, AIReF will publish a new report on the monitoring of the Medium-Term Structural-Fiscal Plan (MTP), in addition to the usual reports on the monitoring of the budgetary cycle, and an Opinion on the national fiscal framework
- AIReF will update the Opinion on the long-term sustainability of the General Government and publish, for the first time, the Report on the expenditure rule for pensions
- AIReF will finalise the studies on Temporary Disability, Official Development Assistance and the Minimum Income Scheme commissioned as part of the Spending Review, as well as several regional studies
- AIReF will implement measures to strengthen its analytical capacities, impact, and evaluation function. It will host the annual meeting of the IFI Network
- AIReF will promote accountability in the final stretch of Cristina Herrero’s mandate
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) published the 2025 Action Plan on its website today, the last one to be developed under the Strategic Plan 2020-2026 of its President, Cristina Herrero, whose non-extendable term of office ends at the start of March 2026. Accordingly, the timeframe of the Action Plan extends to that date. This plan has two unique features compared with previous years: first, it considers the changes implied by the entry into force of the new European fiscal framework. Second, it incorporates most of the recommendations of the external evaluation to which AIReF was subjected in 2024. In this context, AIReF will add new publications to those usually planned and implement actions to strengthen its analytical capacities, ties with academia, internal evaluation capacities and impact.
Specifically, AIReF will analyse for the first time the report that the Government is due to publish in April on monitoring the Medium-Term Structural-Fiscal Plan (MTP) 2025-2028. The Government submitted this MTP to the EU institutions in October 2024 and AIReF reported on it in November of that year. This report will be added to the usual budget cycle monitoring reports. In addition, to continuously monitor ex ante the multi-year commitments made by the Government, AIReF will adapt its monthly budgetary stability target monitoring sheets to incorporate the relevant control variables in the new European fiscal framework and will publish an Opinion on the soundness, coherence, and effectiveness of the national budgetary framework with the European framework. It will also participate in debates and working groups on the application of the new framework of national and European fiscal rules and on the transposition of the European Directive on national fiscal frameworks.
In 2025, AIReF will also publish its second Opinion on the long-term sustainability of the General Government, updating and expanding on the analysis published in March 2023 to address issues of sufficiency, contributory nature, and intra- and inter-generational equity. This opinion will be published together with the first Evaluation Report on the expenditure rule for pensions, which will contain the estimated impact of the measures adopted from 2020 to strengthen the revenue of the public pension system in the period 2022-2050.
In terms of evaluation, AIReF plans to finalise and deliver in 2025 the work of the second phase of the Spending Review 2022-2026, in which it evaluates the Temporary Disability (TD) benefit, Official Development Assistance (ODA) and the Minimum Income Scheme (MIS) in an evaluation complementary to the Fourth Opinion on this benefit. AIReF also expects to finalise and deliver the Study on Industrial Policy commissioned by the Autonomous Region (AR) of Castile and Leon and the Studies on Human Resources in Health commissioned by the ARs of the Balearic Islands, Extremadura and Navarre. In the case of Navarre, AIReF plans to deliver the Study on Healthcare Infrastructure Equipment. In addition, it will begin work on the new regional evaluations commissioned: Public Procurement and Healthcare Information Systems (Balearic Islands), Public Healthcare Procurement (Extremadura) and the development of a Healthcare Action Plan (Murcia).
Furthermore, and considering the external evaluation to which the institution submitted itself on its own initiative, AIReF includes actions to reinforce its analytical capacities in the area of supervision and sustainability analysis in the face of new challenges such as climate change and new investment needs for the transformation of the economy. It will also reinforce the analysis of economic issues relevant to sustainability analysis, especially in the area of modelling. In terms of evaluation, AIReF will publish guidelines for commissioning procedures by the General Government and criteria for prioritising them. In addition, it will identify areas of interest for evaluations, strengthen ties with academia and continue to reinforce internal evaluation capacities. To improve its impact, AIReF will expand the Recommendations Monitor, strengthen the dissemination of public spending evaluation studies at the subnational level and plans to incorporate its own human resources with expertise in communication. In terms of international relations, AIReF will host the annual meeting of the European Union’s Independent Fiscal Institutions Network (IFIs) in 2025, and hold the vice-presidency of the network and continue to participate in its working groups.
Accountability and strengthening of the institution
In this final stretch of Cristina Herrero’s presidential mandate, efforts will be made to enhance accountability and strengthen the institution. The President will request parliamentary appearances in addition to those established in the AIReF regulations. Specifically, an initial appearance at the start of 2025 (already requested) to report on her plans until the end of her term of office and another final appearance in 2026 to take stock of her presidency.
Finally, with the aim of strengthening the institution, initiatives have been included in the areas of human resources, information technology and data processing, and to improve internal management systems.
