The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) hosted today a group of international investors interested in the institution’s economic and fiscal outlook for the Spanish economy at its Madrid headquarters. AIReF President Cristina Herrero met with the investors and economists representing some of the funds with the largest exposure to Spain, including BlackRock, Wellington, Pimco, Brevan Howard, Element, Norges Bank IM, Discovery, Temasek, Alphadyne, Union Investment, GIC Singapore and Elliott, among others.
During the meeting, AIReF staff set out the institution’s latest economic forecasts, which project GDP growth of 3% for this year and 2.1% in 2026, as detailed in the latest report published last October. In the longer term, AIReF projects that real economic growth will converge towards 1.3%.
On the fiscal side, AIReF expects the General Government sector deficit to remain below 3% of GDP through to 2030. However, from 2026 onwards, the deficit is projected to widen, driven by higher spending on interest payments, gross fixed capital formation and cash social benefits.
Drawing on these macroeconomic and fiscal projections, AIReF anticipates a 6.4-point reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio between 2024 and 2030, bringing it to around 95.2% of GDP by the end of the period. This trajectory implies an average annual decline of 1.1 percentage points, with a slight easing in the pace of adjustment in the final years of the projection horizon.
