The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) today published the estimate of the GDP of the Autonomous Regions (ARs) for the fourth quarter of 2024 using the METCAP methodology (Methodology for Quarterly Estimation of GDP by Autonomous Region), which the institution created. METCAP provides the first freely-accessible estimate in Spain that offers these figures and its quarterly update is available for all interested parties on AIReF’s website.
These estimates are made once the National Statistics Institute (Spanish acronym: INE) publishes the advance quarterly data for Spain’s GDP. Accordingly, on January 29th. 2025, the data corresponding to the fourth quarter of 2024 were published. These estimates also incorporate the most recent data from the INE’s Spanish Regional Accounts 2000-2023, published on December 18th, 2024. The summary of GDP growth estimates by Autonomous Region and their evolution in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year rates can be observed in the following tables:
In year-on-year terms, the Balearic Islands is the AR with the highest GDP growth, followed by Murcia, with increases of 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively, higher than the growth of Spain as a whole (3.5%). Conversely, the weakest increase was recorded by Andalusia, with a rate of change of 2.9%.
In quarter-on-quarter rates of change, Galicia stands out for its expansion, with GDP growth of 1.1%, followed by the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands, both with growth of 1%, higher than the growth of the national total (0.8%). On the other hand, and albeit with still incomplete information, it is estimated that Valencia would have grown by 0.2%, well below the national average of 0.8%.
As usual, AIReF provides users with a user-friendly interface (accessible through the website), which allows data to be compared between the ARs and the Spanish GDP data.
The quantitative methodology used combines three types of statistical information available for regional analysis: monthly data on short-term economic indicators disaggregated at a regional level, annual data compiled in national accounting terms by the Spanish Regional Accounts (Spanish acronym: CRE) and, lastly, estimates for the country as a whole published by the Quarterly National Accounts (Spanish acronym: CNTR). This combines the speed and timeliness of short-term indicators, the structural information provided by the CRE and the quarterly national benchmark to ensure the consistency of individual regional estimates.