The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) published the estimate of the GDP of the Autonomous Regions (ARs) for the second quarter of 2025 today, using the METCAP methodology (Methodology for Quarterly Estimation of GDP by Autonomous Region), which the institution created. METCAP provides the first freely-accessible estimate in Spain that offers these figures and its quarterly update is available for all interested parties on AIReF’s website.
These estimates are made once the National Statistics Institute (INE) publishes the advance quarterly data for Spain’s GDP. Accordingly, on July 29th, 2025, the data for the second quarter of the year were published. The summary of GDP growth estimates by AR and their evolution in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year rates can be observed in the following tables:
In year-on-year terms, the Balearic Islands is the AR with the highest GDP growth (3.6%), followed by the Canary Islands (3.2%), Valencia, Rioja and Galicia, all of which recorded growth above 3%. Castile and Leon, in contrast, recorded the lowest growth (2.4%), followed by the Basque Country (2.5%), Aragon and Extremadura. The average for Spain as a whole was 2.8%.
In terms of quarterly rates of change, the Balearic Islands once again stood out for its dynamism, with growth of 1%, followed by Cantabria, Castile-La Mancha and Valencia, which grew by 0.9%. In contrast, Galicia showed weak growth of 0.4%, followed by the Basque Country and Asturias, with 0.5%.
As usual, AIReF provides a user-friendly interface (accessible through the website), which allows data to be compared between the ARs and the Spanish GDP data.
The quantitative methodology used combines three types of statistical information available for regional analysis: monthly data on short-term economic indicators disaggregated at a regional level, annual data compiled in national accounting terms by the Spanish Regional Accounts (SRA) and, lastly, estimates for the country as a whole published by the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA). This combines the speed and timeliness of short-term indicators, the structural information provided by the SRA and the quarterly national benchmark to ensure the consistency of individual regional estimates.
