The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts that accompany the 2026 draft budget of the Autonomous Region of Extremadura. This Region presents estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in volume terms, the GDP deflator, and employment in terms of employed persons for the period 2024–2028, which differ from the latest estimates of the national macroeconomic scenario.
According to the organic law under which AIReF was created, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government sub-sectors must include a report from AIReF indicating whether they have been endorsed.
Extremadura forecasts GDP growth in volume terms of 1.3% for 2026. This forecast falls within the 40–60 percentiles of AIReF’s estimates (central forecast of 1.5%) and is lower than those made by other institutions for the region.
AIReF emphasizes that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions are made in a context of high uncertainty. In addition to geopolitical risks, the Autonomous Regions face another major source of uncertainty related to the lack of essential information needed to develop their macroeconomic scenarios. Specifically, the most recent available data from the Spanish Regional Accounts refer to the year 2023, published in December 2024, and are not consistent with the new national accounting figures made available after the publication of the regular statistical revision, which affected data for the years 2022 to 2024.
AIReF notes that this lack of information hampers the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts and budgetary planning by the Autonomous Regions, which, in a system as decentralized as Spain’s, could potentially affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that Extremadura comply with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin it, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. The Autonomous Region also complies with the good practice advice regarding the inclusion of a comparison with other independent forecasts and the provision of information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underpinning their forecasts. The Region also complies with the good practice advice regarding the inclusion of macroeconomic projections beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated, which is essential for assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the Medium-Term Structural-Fiscal Plan presented by the Government.
