The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the Region of Murcia’s draft budget for 2026. The Region presents estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the GDP deflator and employment for the 2025–2027 period that differ from the latest estimates in the macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole. Under the provisions of the Organic Law establishing AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
Specifically, the Region of Murcia forecasts GDP growth in volume terms of 2.5% for 2026. This forecast coincides with AIReF’s central forecast and falls within the range of forecasts by other organisations for the Region.
AIReF stresses that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions are produced amid high uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Moreover, the latest Spanish Regional Accounts figures are those for 2024, published in December 2025. In this context, the high level of uncertainty makes it more difficult to draw up the macroeconomic outlook and budgetary planning of the Autonomous Regions. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could in turn affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
Recommendations and best practice guidance
AIReF notes that the Region of Murcia complies with the recommendation to submit the information on the macroeconomic forecasts underpinning its draft budget, together with the corresponding request for endorsement, before the draft is published. It also complies with the best practice guidance on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and providing information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underpinning its forecasts, although a greater level of detail would be desirable. To ensure more consistent information and facilitate comparability, AIReF reiterates the best practice guidance on providing employment estimates in Regional Accounts terms.
The Region of Murcia also complies with the best practice guidance on including macroeconomic projections beyond the year for which the budget is drawn up, an essential consideration when assessing the consistency of the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts with the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan. AIReF nevertheless reiterates the best practice guidance that the scenarios presented should be extended, given that the plan has a four-year horizon.
