The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budget of the Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha for 2026. The document sets out growth projections for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment for the period 2026-2030, which differ from the most recent forecasts of the Spanish Government’s macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
Under the provisions of the Organic Law on the creation of the AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government authorities must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2027, the Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha estimates GDP growth in volume terms of 2.0%. This forecast is slightly lower than AIReF’s forecast of 2.1% and is within the range of other agencies’ forecasts for the region.
AIReF stresses that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of heightened uncertainty and geopolitical risks. In addition, the latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts are those for 2024, published in December 2025. This lack of information hinders the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts and the budgetary planning of the Autonomous Regions which, in a system as decentralised as Spain’s, may potentially have repercussions on compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that the Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin the budget and the corresponding request for endorsement. It also follows the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and on providing information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions underlying its projections.
The Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha likewise complies with the best practice advice on including macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year to which the budget refers. This is essential for assessing how consistent the Autonomous Regions’ forecasts are with the Government’s Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan (MTP). It also provides information on the forecast path of the GDP deflator.