The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budget of Asturias for 2026. The document sets out growth projections in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms, of the implicit GDP deflator and employment for the period 2025–2028, which differ from the Spanish Government’s macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
Under the provisions of the Organic Law on the creation of the AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft budgets of all General Government must be accompanied by a report from the institution stating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2026, Asturias estimates GDP growth in real terms of 1.7%. This forecast is similar to AIReF’s forecast of 1.8% and lies below the range of other agencies’ forecasts for the region.
AIReF stresses that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of heightened uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The latest figures available from the Spanish Regional Accounts refer to 2024 and were published in September 2025, although they may be revised in the release scheduled for December. These new estimates update the figures for 2022–2023 and incorporate those for 2024.
In this context, the high level of uncertainty makes it more difficult to draw up the macroeconomic outlook and to plan budgets at AR level. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could in turn affect compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF notes that Asturias complies with the recommendation to submit the information on the macroeconomic forecasts underpinning its draft budget, together with the corresponding request for endorsement, before the draft is published. It also follows the best practice advice on including a comparison with other independent forecasts and on providing information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as on the assumptions underlying its projections.
Asturias likewise complies with the best practice advice on including macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year to which the budget refers. This is essential for assessing how consistent the ARs’ forecasts are with the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan (MTP).
