The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts accompanying the draft budgets for 2026 for the Basque Country, which presents estimates of growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), in terms of volume and at current prices, of the GDP deflator and of employment, in terms of persons employed and full-time equivalent jobs, that differ from the latest estimates in the macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
According to the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government (GG) authorities must include a report from the institution indicating whether they have been endorsed.
Specifically, the Basque Country estimates GDP growth in terms of volume of 1.9% for 2026. This forecast coincides with AIReF’s central forecast and is within the range of forecasts made by other agencies for the region.
AIReF emphasises that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of high uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The latest figures available from the Spanish Regional Accounts refer to 2024, published in September 2025, but may be subject to change in the publication scheduled for December. The new estimates have revised the figures for 2022-2023 and added those for 2024.
In this context, the high level of uncertainty hinders the macroeconomic outlook and budgetary planning of the ARs. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could potentially impact compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments. AIReF highlights that the Basque Country complies with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin it, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice recommendation to include a comparison with other independent forecasts and to provide information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underlying its forecasts. The region also complies with the best practice recommendation to include macroeconomic forecasts beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated. This is essential for assessing the consistency of the ARs’ forecasts with the medium-term Fiscal-Structural Plan presented by the Government. However, we reiterate our best advice recommendation to extend the scenarios presented.
