The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) endorses the forecasts that accompany the draft budget for 2026 of the Autonomous Region of the Canary Islands, which presents estimates for GDP growth in volume and current terms, the implicit GDP deflator and employment, in terms of persons employed, for the period 2025-2028, which differ from the latest forecasts in the Government of Spain’s macroeconomic scenario for the country as a whole.
According to the Organic Law on the Creation of AIReF, the macroeconomic forecasts incorporated in the draft budgets of all General Government (GG) authorities must include a report from AIReF indicating whether they have been endorsed.
For 2026, the Canary Islands estimate GDP growth in terms of volume of 1.9%. This forecast is lower than AIReF’s central forecast (2.3%) and slightly below the average forecast of other agencies for the region (2.4%), although some agencies’ forecasts do not yet reflect regional accounting revisions.
AIReF emphasises that macroeconomic forecasts for the Autonomous Regions (ARs) are made in a context of great uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The latest figures from the Spanish Regional Accounts refer to 2024 and were published in September 2025, but they may change in the publication scheduled for December. The new forecasts have revised the figures for 2022-2023 and added those for 2024.
In this context, the high level of uncertainty hinders the macroeconomic outlook and budgetary planning of the ARs. In a system as decentralised as Spain’s, this could potentially impact compliance with national and European fiscal rules and commitments.
AIReF highlights that the Canary Islands comply with the recommendation to submit, prior to the publication of the draft budget, information on the macroeconomic forecasts that underpin it, along with the corresponding request for endorsement. It also complies with the best practice recommendation to include a comparison with other independent forecasts and to provide information on the econometric techniques, models and parameters used, as well as the assumptions underlying these forecasts.
This region also complies with the best practice recommendation regarding the inclusion of macroeconomic projections beyond the year for which the budgets are formulated, which is essential for assessing the consistency of the ARs’ forecasts with the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan (MTP) presented by the Government and for providing information on the expected path of the GDP deflator.
