Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

October 01, 2015

E0892_IMG This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically most useful indicators about current economic activity and demand developments. The methodology is applied to the Spanish economy, presenting real-time quarterly estimates of GDP and its demand components.