The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) today published individual reports evaluating the draft budgets and main budgetary lines of each of the 17 Autonomous Regions (ARs). These reports complement the general report on the General Government (GG) Sector published on October 29th, which included an analysis of the sub-sector as a whole, and the Supplementary Report on Local Governments published on October 31st. AIReF thus completes its analysis by publishing these reports.
For the sub-sector as a whole, AIReF forecasts fiscal balances close to equilibrium between 2026 and 2030. In 2025, the fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate, but the situation is anticipated to improve by 2026. Between 2026 and 2030, fiscal balances are expected to be close to equilibrium, although with slight variations in 2027, resulting in a surplus of 0.1% of GDP, and in 2030, with a deficit of 0.1% of GDP.
Eligible expenditure for the purposes of the national expenditure rule is expected to grow in the ARs between 2025 and 2027 above the current reference rates. Primary expenditure net of revenue measures is expected to grow by an average of 4.2% between 2025 and 2030.
At the individual level, AIReF forecasts that in most ARs, eligible expenditure for the purposes of the national expenditure rule will grow above current reference rates between 2025 and 2027.
In addition, most ARs are expected to close 2025 and 2026 with a balanced budget or a surplus. In 2025, AIReF estimates that nine ARs will achieve a balanced budget or a surplus, while four will have a deficit of more than 0.5 percentage points of regional GDP. In 2026, the fiscal balance is expected to improve for most ARs, with only two recording a deficit of more than 1 point of GDP.
The detailed individual analysis is included in each of the reports published today.
